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18 Mar 2014 Page 1. Please see the published paper here: www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0921800914000615.
Human and Nature Dynamics (HANDY):. Modeling Inequality and Sustainability. Safa Motesharrei, Jorge Rivas. Eugenia Kalnay. University of Maryland. Numerical Analysis and Predictability. University of Pittsburgh,. 3-4 May 2016
In summary, despite the common impression that societal collapse is rare, or even largely fictional, “the picture that emerges is of a process recurrent in history, and global in its distribution" (Tainter, 1988). See also Yoffee and Cowgill (1988), Goldstein (1988), Ibn Khaldun (1958), Kondratieff (1984), and Parsons (1991).
28 Mar 2014 (See motesharrei-rivas-kalnay.pdf). “Given economic stratification, collapse is very difficult to avoid and requires major policy changes, including major reductions in inequality and population growth rates," authors Safa Motesharrei, Eugenia Kalnay, and Jorge Rivas say in the study, which was first reported
Y Li, N de Noblet-Ducoudre, EL Davin, S Motesharrei, N Zeng, S Li, Earth System and Human Systems. S Motesharrei, J Rivas, E Kalnay, GR Asrar, AJ Busalacchi, RF Cahalan, National Science Review 3 (4), 470--494, 2016. 10, 2016. Causality analysis: Identifying the leading element in a coupled dynamical system.
31 Mar 2014 On March 20, NASA publicly denied that it had “solicited, directed or reviewed" the paper, calling it “an independent study by the university researchers utilizing research tools developed for a separate NASA activity."[2]. The paper is signed by three U.S. academics. Lead author Safa Motesharrei is a PhD
11 Dec 2016 However, current models, such as the Integrated Assessment Models (IAMs), that explore the future of humanity and environment, and guide policy, do not incorporate these critical feedbacks. Key Human System .. To study key mechanisms behind such collapses, Motesharrei et al. [134] developed a
Date: February 17, 2017; Source: University of Maryland; Summary: Accurately modeling climate change and interactive human factors -- including inequality, This is seen particularly after the two major accelerating regime shifts: Industrial Revolution (~1750) and Green Revolution (~1950)" said Safa Motesharrei, UMD
15 Apr 2014 The authors – Safa Motesharrei, Jorge Rivas and Dr. Eugenia Kalnay – have described their study as "a thought experiment," explaining that it is not intended to make specific predictions about a particular current society. They build upon an existing model: the predator-prey model. A similar approach was
14 Mar 2014 The independent research project is based on a new cross-disciplinary 'Human And Nature DYnamical' (HANDY) model, led by applied mathematician Safa Motesharrei of the US National Science Foundation-supported National Socio-Environmental Synthesis Center, in association with a team of natural
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