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Book descriptionSo I read this book for old times’ sake.I’ve traded fixed income out of a good ten addresses, but not (yet??) Morgan Stanley. A decade ago, under Stephen Roach, they had the Street’s undisputed #1 economics department. So my weekend would invariably start with the musings of Stephen Roach, Joachim Fels, Andy Xie and Robert Alan Feldman, with special attention given to avoiding anything Eric Chaney had to say, in case it inspired me to trade Sterling, where I have a solid record in losing money.I’m happy to report he has not changed much. Others have tried to write this book (example: Michael Pettis) and failed. Stephen Roach has one story and he lays it out over 250 pages. Twenty five would have probably done the trick, but hey, he’s got spare time out in Asia where they parked him once his perma-bearish outlook had become too uncomfortable for management. And if I read this right, he seems to be totally gone now and working out of New Haven. Yikes!The story is not rocket science, but somebody had to write it: China has spent the last thirty years moving its population from the countryside to the megacities of the coast, where they assemble (but increasingly also design) consumer products that we buy in the West. It was a gamble and it’s paid off, with China becoming the world’s second largest economy, manufacturer and exporter. Perhaps even the largest on at least a couple of these measures. The model of the Chinese economy has become export-and-investment led, the two representing 72% of the economy (don’t worry, imports bring the number back down somewhat), at the expense of the Chinese consumer, who’s stuck at 36% of GDP and of the Chinese worker, who is having to look for work in the part of the economy (manufacturing) that is most open to advances in productivity.Conversely, the US has completely given up on investment, has totally unlearnt how to save (at the government, corporate and personal level), has run a budget deficit since the Reagan years (a couple years of surplus at the height of the Clinton / Greenspan tech bubble notwithstanding), a savings deficit since 2008 and a negative current account balance since (you guessed it) the Reagan years and has made consumption (at almost 70% of GDP) the cornerstone of its growth story (perhaps even the whole planet’s, at 17% of its GDP), most recently fuelled by a good 2 trillion of Treasury purchases by the Chinese central bank.So the two states have become, in Stephen Roach’s words, “codependent”The book is a story of• how we got here (It was an explicit and well executed strategy on the part of the Chinese, and a combination of 1. The politics of “growth addiction” and 2. Alan Greenspan’s blind faith in markets on the part of the US)• why we need to stop blaming the Chinese for allegedly stealing American jobs when (i) America shares at least half the responsibility and (ii) the US has a current account deficit with 102 economies, of whom China merely happens to be the largest but by no means the naughtiest on WTO measures• how we can cause a 1930’s style disaster if we unilaterally start a trade war• what comes next (rebalancing, whether we want it or not, since we’ve reached the end of the road for both the US model and the Chinese model with the crisis of 2008)• what specific measures both sides must take (the Chinese should promote labor-intensive services such as transport, retail, financial services etc., while the US must prepare to export such services to China, must cut its budget deficit, must give up on consumption that’s never coming back because the middle class has either totally lost the assets that once drove its spending or is busy servicing the associated debt, must stop the Fed from further inflating assets because they belong to the class that does not spend anyway and must find ways to invest more, both in areas where it used to lead in, like education, healthcare and infrastructure, but also in growth areas of the future)No doubt there are some contradictions here. Either the US government must cut the deficit or it must invest. Either the citizens should spend or they should chase even further into the sky via their saving money the very assets the Fed has inflated with its sundry bubblicious activities. But Stephen Roach loves a moan, so it’s up to you the reader to draw the line somewhere; he won’t.And that, of course, is what we fanatics love about Steve Roach!Unbalanced: The Codependency of America and China by Stephen Roach book offline look eng audio
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